Tour Report: Fantasy mailbag: Reshuffle looms (PGATOUR.com)
Posted by Yahoo! Sports - Golf News on February 22, 2012
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This is the final week of the first phase of the reshuffle among Nationwide Tour and q-school graduates. Once the World Golf Championships-Accenture Match Play Championship and the Mayakoba Golf Classic are in the books, the golfers in Priority Ranking No. 25 will be reordered based on earnings.
For many, this week is arguably the most important of the year for the guys slotted 21st and lower if the reshuffle occurred after the Northern Trust Open. I explain why below.
First, for season-long formats that dig into this group, owners are required to pay attention. For some, the results of the first reshuffle can prove valuable. Here is an excerpt of an email thread dating back to Feb. 1 when a gamer began fine-tuning his draft strategy:
Our season runs from the Honda through the PGA. It’s getting down to the wire for my picks and I’m worrying myself over the last few. Can you tell me what the likelihood of Category 25ers who finish with a high ranking on the first reshuffle (top 10 or close to it) will be to play in any regular TOUR event? I am looking at bargain picks like Jarrod Lyle and Harris English. — Shane
Let’s make the simple yet accurate assumption that guys near the top will play more often. Next, my advice is to focus only on the top 20 following this weekend. Here are some facts as it relates to the reshuffle category over a four-year span starting in 2008:
- There have been 13 winners. At the time of their victories, six were inside the top 10. Another six were inside the top 20. The only golfer outside the top 20 was Richard S. Johnson, who won in Milwaukee in July 2008 from the 37th position. (Greg Kraft was on Past Champion status won he won in Puerto Rico in 2008.)
- In addition to the 13 winners, 52 more finished inside the top 125 in earnings in their respective seasons. Of the 52, 19 were ranked inside the top 10 of the first reshuffle of the year. That’s nearly half of the 40 in the sample size (top-10 rankings over four years). Sixteen (or 40 percent) were slotted 11-20. Therefore, two-thirds (35 of 52) of the golfers that finished inside the top 125 sat somewhere in the top 20 after the first reshuffle.
Now, quite a bit of golf remains and four more reshuffles will occur, so the guys in the top 20 still must take advantage of the springboard that was a hot start to 2012. In the last four years, six that ranked inside the top 10 of the first reshuffle failed to finish inside the top 150 on the money list.
This includes Jarrod Lyle twice (2009, 2011). And sure enough, he’d sit fourth in this year’s reshuffle if there are no changes this weekend. (He’s scheduled to compete in Mexico.) English would sit ninth in the reshuffle with no changes. He didn’t commit to Mayakoba.
Of the guys that sat 11-20 in the first reshuffle over the last four years, 13 failed to finish the season inside the top 150 in earnings.
Fantasy golf is often as much about hedging as it is about investing properly. If this dynamic impacts your game, be sure to visit the reshuffle that I update weekly.
In a rematch of their third-round match from last year, the 14th-seeded Yang once again knocked off McDowell. The Korean was 1 down after suffering a bogey at the fifth. But he bounced back with consecutive birdies from 10 and 12 feet and never trailed after that. McDowell, a No. 3 seed, was just 1 down through 12 after a Yang bogey, but Yang matched McDowell’s birdies at the 13th and 15th holes. It’s the third consecutive year Yang has won his first-round match. It was a disappointing day for McDowell, who played well (13 of 17 GIR, 10 of 13 fairways, six birdies) but did not get the payoff. “I felt like I had to follow him all day long, and I did most of the day,” McDowell said, “but he didn’t put a foot wrong.”Yang’s next opponent: Hunter Mahan